Two polls conducted in the past week show a commanding lead for Sheriff Paul Babeu in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District.
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of likely voters for the Babeu campaign, to determine their choice for Congress. The results were as follows:
Paul Babeu – 31%
Paul Gosar – 23%
Ron Gould – 19%
Of those who “definitely” know their choice, Babeu has double the support of both Gould and Gosar.
Definitely Paul Babeu – 21%
Definitely Paul Gosar – 12%
Definitely Ron Gould – 10%
“Babeu is well positioned to win this race,” said Glen Bolger, founding partner of Public Opinion Strategies. Babeu has solid leads among “very conservative voters, Tea Party supporters, strong NRA supporters, and base Republicans,” said Bolger, whose memorandum on this poll can be downloaded here.
Gosar recently announced his candidacy in a district 50 miles from his house, abandoning a district with 70% of his current constituents, citing his “base” in Yavapai County. Bolger called his support there “underwhelming.”
Babeu strategist Chris DeRose said “If this is Gosar’s base, I’d hate to see the part of the district that doesn’t like him. Voters in this new district won’t like his liberal record any more than the one he’s running from.”
These findings dovetail an independent poll published in the Arizona Capitol Times Yellow Sheet:
Total respondents: 744
Gosar 19%
Gould 17%
Babeu 29%
Tobin 5%
Undecided 30%
Public Opinion Strategies is the most trusted name in Republican polling. Founded in 1991, it counts as clients 80 members of the House of Representatives, 19 United States Senators, and 6 governors.
Download the Public Opinion Strategies poll results here.
